LONG SHOT FOR THE DEMOCRATS IN 2006

  The mantra from the left blosgsphere is "you just wait until November!". It's a very versatile phrase. It comes in very handy when the liberals have been trounced logically and when you ask them for evidence and proof of the BUSH LIED cheer. It also is inserted at the end of every post. I quests to end with a bang!
I have asked many a liberal how they think they can win in November when no one knows what their party stands for. Some reply with a laundry list of the things the Democrats stand for which is odd because the Democrats have stated that they have time before they unveil their platform. Others claim they will win and use George Bush's low poll numbers as their guide. The Democratic party seems to be following the same theories because as the campaign heats up we have the candidates criticizing Bush for the war, his handling of Medicare and the Dubai ports sale. Suddenly the Democrats have lost site of history and precedent.
History shows us that mid term elections are determined by local issues. It's absurd to think people will vote out their Senator or Congressman simply because they do not like the president. Those who are running for re election will be judged by their constituents and no one else. In other words. What a fishmonger in Seattle thinks of Michael Steele (R MD) will have no bearing on his chances.
Now people will point to the fact that the Democrats are supposedly working on their version of Newts "Contract for America" which won the Republicans control in 1994 with a national agenda. The problem is the Democrats idea of a national agenda is criticism of the president's policies and that alone will not win an election. It's a difficult task that would most probably simply make the Democrats look more negative than they already appear. If they were to attempt to duplicate the Contract with America they would then be forced to come up with real alternatives to what they perceive as George Bush's failed policies. They would have to produce one cohesive message on the issues and the impeachment of the president is not one of them.
Above all this we have to consider how the Democrats would fair from a numbers standpoint. In 1994 the playing field was wide open. this years however the playing field is more like a window box in the Bronx. Tiny.
Of 435 House seats, just 32 are in races considered competitive, compared with 110 at this time in 1994. . Of those, 11 are held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. Democrats will have to hold on to all 11 of their competitive seats and win 15 of the 21 Republican seats in order to take back the House. Now if you ad to the mix that historically the incumbent retains his seat the Democrats have a very steep hill to climb. I believe they will pick up some seats and come closer to control but it will not happen this year....Just wait till November.
-Bert